Hi guys,
Just a brainstorming post today. I just want to take inventory of most of my toons and try to sell what i need to sell and pick up what i need to pick up. 4.3 is just around the corner with the end of the arena season even closer. What do i expect to see? a lot of people dumping their stocks as well. last night i saw volatiles for about 75% cheaper than normal and bought a few. i am not going to resell these come 4.3, but stock up on truegolds (via daily xmutes) to sell later. currently, my server has truegolds at around 450-500gold. buying up the stocks of pyrium bars, volatile air, water and fires will still cost about 300g per truegold, but procs are what im after. even still, 100g profit per bar, if there's no proc, is still pretty good--today. i am betting on them going up in prices for the next tier raids, since crafting professions will still use them. the only change is that chaos orbs will be going cheap in the AH since there's a lot stuck to characters who dont use all of them. plus, we'll see a lot of them out for sale since people will be running heroics more often, with three extra dungeons.
The other thing i can stockpile up for with the volatiles are the pvp gears. a lot of the hardcore pvper's already will have their HPs and JPs maxed, ready to buy their honor pieces (and convert their JPs to HPs once their HPs run out) come next season. with the HP to JP depreciation, you'll get about 2600 HPs from your stockpiled 4000 JPs. So if pvpers can get about 3 pieces the very first day, and possible 4 more by the end of the week, they'll need something to fill in the extra slots.
here's what i see them thinking. they have a total of 6600 points (4000 + 2600). what's the best way to spend that? accessories or sets? i'd personally go for the sets, but you can go for the accessories if, maybe, they already have last season's set and do not need to upgrade yet. So there will be people who prioritize the chest, pants, shoulders, gloves and helm first (or just the 2pc bonus). others will want the rings, cape, bracers, belt and neck and keep their old set bonus until they get enough points to replace two pieces at once. two pieces b/c of the bonuses, ofc. im leaving trinkets out of this. but overall, gear sales will go up. hopefully, the mats will be the same. they'll just update the recipes of the bloodthirsty items.
What i do want to get rid of are the inscription items. darkmoon cards, especially. they're not selling well and are going for a loss. each card costs me about 800g to make. while some cards are going for 1000g or more, the majority of them are going for about 500g. need to get rid of those. as well, i think i'll be mass-making glyphs this weekend just to remove my stocks of inks. they're overflowing my bank space and i'd rather make glyphs and sell those than sell the inks. i dont know, maybe because i have that ability. anyway, books of glyph mastery are going for 1k and i need to fund that! i am a completionist in that sense. funny how im JC, i only learn what i think will sell well, and slowly fill out the rest of my recipes when i have enough tokens hoarded up. i dont know any of the jewelry recipes (necklaces, rings) because i never saw a profit from selling those. at least, not a steady profit.
I'll still look for cheap elementium ores and obsidium ores (for my server, elementiums less than 60g/stack and obsidium less than 50g/stack). hoarding gems at least since they'll still sell. raiders will have to fight it out amongst themselves for their epic gems, but when it comes to rare quality gems, they'll still flock to the AH.
One of my toons has about 500 infinite dusts and such, all northrend enchanting supplies. i think the prices are pretty steep at this time and would be a good time to at least start selling them slowly. this simply means i'll be logging into another character daily to check auctions, repost, etc. the 500 dusts arent really that much, but it's still quite a bit of gold. i have various things to disenchant as well, which will all go to the AH soon since i dont think enchanting mats will retain its value. its been slowly declining over the weeks. heavenly shards, that used to be about 175g are now about 90g. maelstroms, which hovered at about 300g are now just a little over 100g. even the recipes are slowly dropping in prices. landslide was at about 2k gold, now down to 1k, which is about equal the price of mats, so you'll make more gold advertising in trade and getting tips for it than if you post it on the AH.
twinks or leveling alts are slowly dying. how? my enchant agility to weapon, crusader to weapon, even fiery or icy chill arent selling well at all. and no, i havent had the luck of getting spell power enchant at all. plus, there's no real time to farm it.
TL:DR - I am stockpiling gems of all kinds and buying elementiums and obsidiums when it's low (below 50-60g in my realm). from the prospects, i'm doing the basic shuffle (shadowspirits, more gems, daily prism making, and making jewelry to D/E.
Since the only profitable pvp gear is actually leather/mail gear, i'll be focusing on that market (as opposed to cloth and plate). with cloth and plate, i'll probably buy low and sell normal like i did this patch. for the mail pieces, i'll probably end up making the chest, pants, helm and shoulders. hordeside, i know the pvp leather sets, and alliance side, i know the pvp mail sets. will be x-faction trading some items to see how they sell also.
I am also trying to sell my stocks of old content enchanting mats. For the cata mats, i am still wondering if i should sell everything now (since prices of these things will probably drop, though i am hoping not) or hold on to it hoping that prices will normalize. part of me says sunk costs, but the other part of me says hold on! hold on! im going to lean more on sunk cost scenario and liquidate soon. enchanting isnt my major profession anyway, so selling all the mats will probably net me about 20k anyway. that's probalby what i'll make in scroll sales come 4.3. which means... better to have the 20k in liquid gold when 4.3 drops because then, i'll be able to see where the market moves and then invest and react then. liquidity is a big thing, especially when looking at credit like i do at work.
But 20k gold... this isnt a big thing to watch out for and manage. if i only get 10k back, i'll be fine. now, if i have enough stock to get a possible 100k, then i'll be more focused on this market. but for the time being, it seems my main moneymaker, three years running, is JC. i'll be expecting to increase my gold by about 100k when my gem stocks run out (calculates in brain with no proof: about 3 weeks of AH whoring will deplete my stocks).
Monday, November 14, 2011
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